Could David Gray mix things up for Hibs’ trip to Livingston?

A penny for David Gray’s thoughts as he considers his starting lineup for Saturday’s match against Livingston, following Rangers’ defeat on Wednesday night.

Ten of the 11 players that started against the Light Blues played against Livingston at Easter Road a few weekends ago, contributing to a 4-0 win, while a different lineup cruised to victory in West Lothian in the Premier Sports Cup.

While some of the reaction to the midweek defeat has been a little histrionic – I’m not sure if some of the calls on social media for Grey to leave immediately after the final whistle were quietly retracted in the cold light of day – there is merit in suggesting that things need to be freshened up a little.

Settled team v ‘loyalty’

Some supporters have accused Grey of showing too much ‘loyalty to his pals,’ but it appears that it is more about avoiding changing a settled team for the sake of it, and keeping faith in a system and personnel that have resulted in victories, than it is about remaining loyal to underperforming players.

In general, he wasn’t slow to remove team players who weren’t performing well last season, and it usually had a positive impact because the dropped players would work hard to make their way back in, creating a more competitive environment in training and on the pitch.

Part of the problem during the rough patch at the start of last season was that injuries, suspensions, and players out of form meant Gray had to rotate his starting XI virtually every week. It was no coincidence that once he managed to get a settled line-up in that new formation that the team’s fortunes started to change.

It would be fair to say that things are not as bad as they were at this point last year, but the bar has been raised because of how last season ended, and it wouldn’t be harsh to suggest that Hibs have been underachieving for the squad they have and how they’ve been playing.

Celtic and Rangers’ troubles early in the season have soured the mood, and Hearts’ blistering start hasn’t helped either. However, it is worth mentioning that Hearts has used the same starting lineup for the last six games, winning five and drawing one.

Trying to find an attacking blend

Nowadays, the game is mostly reliant on statistics. For example, Martin Boyle is yet to score a league goal from open play this season; Kieron Bowie has three goals in 10 games but has gone scoreless in his last five; Elie Youan has two goals in four appearances; and Thibault Klidje has two goals in four starts.

The more Hibs struggle to score goals in games, the more scrutiny Grey faces, which is the nature of modern sport.

Of course, there are certain mitigating variables. The inability to sign Lyndon Dykes on transfer deadline day has left Hibs without a backup and competition for Bowie.

The Scotland striker might undoubtedly use a rest, but it’s fair that he’s started every league game.

Boyle has largely failed to reach the heights of last season, though there is hope that a spell on the bench will be the catalyst for his form to turn around, as it was last year; Youan has had injury issues, and Klidje has had to be patient but has so far demonstrated the benefits of not being rushed into action.

Hoilett, who won the penalty on Wednesday night, scored twice against Livingston at Easter Road but had previously made a few anonymous substitute appearances.

Nicky Cadden has yet to register an assist in the league after six games and was taken out of the team for a couple of games.

He returned for the matches against Livingston and Aberdeen and appeared to have improved, despite not contributing any goals, but struggled to find any success against Rangers.

Assuming Grey sticks to the 352 layout, he’ll have to decide who starts in the front two on Saturday.

He has lots of alternatives and will have an opinion on which pairing would work best against Livingston, but there is also the possibility that changing things up too much may have a negative impact. So there’s no pressure there.

Stats offer some optimism – but…

I know, I know – xG doesn’t mean anything if you don’t put the ball in the net, and the definition of crazy is ‘doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.’

The fact that Hibs are still second in the xG rankings, trailing just Celtic (and ahead of Hearts) provides some hope that things will improve sooner rather than later.

Hibs remain second for xG per 90 in the Scottish Premiership (Image: StatsBomb)

Hibs started the league season with some impressive xG results, although not goals, before dropping off, but they have recently surged back up. All they need now is some good fortune to match.

Speaking after Wednesday night’s game, Rocky Bushiri threw his support behind the strikers, stating that the tone in the dressing room, despite the outcome and overall mood in the fans, remained rather optimistic.

The players should be confident ahead of Livingston, a team that has conceded six goals to Hibs in two games without reply and has only one league win all season.

The fact that Hibs have beaten them twice with quite different lineups at home and away should give them hope.

The game provides an excellent opportunity to return to winning ways, ideally with a result that matches a great performance.

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