Why next five games are critical for Aberdeen.
A home game against Livingston in early September would not often elicit jitters and excitement at Aberdeen.
However, as Jimmy Thelin’s team prepares to return to league action, everybody with an interest in the club is eager to see how they do following a winless start. Three games, three defeats, and no goals is a terrible start, especially when tough games away to Heart of Midlothian and at home to Celtic are included.
However, it becomes worse when you consider that they have won only five Scottish Premiership games in 30 since November 2024.
The loan additions of Kevin Nisbet, Stuart Armstrong, and Bologna winger Jesper Karlsson at the close of the transfer window have lifted spirits following the setback to Falkirk.
But they also indicate that it is now time to deliver. Aberdeen’s next five domestic fixtures are against Livingston, Motherwell in the League Cup, Dundee United, Motherwell in the Premiership, and Dundee.
Despite Thelin’s reputation as a popular Scottish Cup winner, these games already seem like must-wins for the manager.
Aberdeen lack spark and defensive solidity
Thelin’s first season at Aberdeen was distinguished by a fantastic start – 13 straight wins during a 16-game unbeaten streak – and a magnificent finish, when they defeated Celtic at Hampden to win the Scottish Cup.
However, the middle section was significantly gloomier, as has been the case throughout the season. The last ten months in the league have been marked by the conceding of careless goals mixed with a lack of spark in the final third.
Only demoted Ross County and St Johnstone have scored fewer Premiership goals than Aberdeen since the start of the previous season, excluding Falkirk and Livingston, who have played three top-flight games in that time.
Unsurprisingly, they rank relatively low in terms of conversion rate and amount of huge chances scored.
That lack of a lethal touch has been exacerbated by the fact that they are also ranked low in the Premier League in terms of predicted goals and crosses. They just do not test opposition defenders sufficiently, and when they do, they squander opportunities.
In defence, only Dundee and Kilmarnock have allowed more goals. None of these bleak numbers are surprising given that a team has won five of the league’s 30 games. So, what could be causing them?
Why are Aberdeen struggling?
It’s difficult to isolate a single issue, yet player turnover is often disregarded. Twenty-four players have entered in Thelin’s three windows, with a large number also departing.
Aberdeen effectively signed a new defence in January, and left-back Jack Mackenzie had to be replaced this summer as well. Dimitar Mitov, the first-choice custodian last season, was sidelined for extended periods of time due to injuries.
The Bulgarian started behind the same back four for the majority of their 13-game winning streak. However, it is possible that a lack of continuity at the back contributed to poor defence, as did an apparent lack of physicality and aggression at times.
According to Opta data, Aberdeen has lost more challenges than any other Premiership team since the beginning of last season.
That could also be due to players not reacting quickly enough or being in the appropriate places, but in any case, it is a troubling figure in a league like the Premiership, where winning tackles and second balls are crucial. A lack of continuity may also be hindering the attack.
Topi Keskinen (35) is the only Aberdeen forward to have started more than 22 of their past 41 league games. Jamie McGrath, Pape Gueye, and Shayden Morris were major creators and scorers for Thelin last season and have since left the club.
Only Celtic and Rangers have changed their lineups more than Aberdeen. Since chairman Dave Cormack took over the club’s leadership in November 2019, it has developed a successful player trade mechanism.
That entails looking for value in younger players competing in some of Europe’s lesser-known leagues. With that comes risk, and many who have arrived have yet to prove themselves. Keskinen, aged 22, is a good example.
The winger, who was signed for a large amount from HJK Helsinki, has had some brilliant moments but has only two league assists and five goals in 39 appearances.
Under a manager who regards his wingers as critical to his system, such return is insufficient. However, Keskinen is not the only one responsible.
“Jimmy Thelin’s got a lot to think about,” former Aberdeen captain Willie Miller told Sportsound following the Falkirk defeat. “He’s brought in a lot of project players, but we have yet to see the rewards.
“There are a lot of new players coming in, and the roster is also quite youthful. There are several of them aged 23 and under.
They don’t have much experience. “All these players need to convince that they are good enough for the club.”
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